Simon Dalby castigates Richard Kaplan’s article “The Coming Anarchy”, a pessimistic view of societal collapse. Kaplan theorized that rapid population growth will overload resources, especially in urban slums, leading to an increase in crime. Beginning in Western Africa, he claims this “criminal anarchy” will spread to the rest of Africa, as well as the rest of the developing world. This is bad not only for those countries but it is also a security threat for the industrialized countries. Kaplan warned that “traditional” state formation might not survive as tribalism takes over.
Dalby goes through a step by step critique of Kaplan’s arguments. As he points out Kaplan’s article rests on the assumption of a “bifurcated world” with the industrialized world on one side, and the rest of the world on the other. This is a simplistic view which ignores the complexities of social and political dynamics within and between countries and relies on imperialistic stereotypes. As he points out near the beginning of the piece many people took issue with Kaplan’s article, especially the way he characterized different countries. Dalby does not go into much detail here or give too many examples; his critique is really best understood by those who have read the original article. Despite this he offers an important alternative to that of Kaplan. As he points out despite its many criticisms the article was well received in policy circles; it unfortunately became popular amongst the people most likely to implement policies based on its findings.
- Dalby, Simon “The Environment as Geopolitical Threat Reading Robert Kaplan’s “Coming Anarchy”” from , Ecumene vol. 3, no. 4, pp. 472-496, 1996